Hi Mike. Yes, I agree. probability is central to modality. The important thing to grasp here, which is perhaps the source of disagreements, is that there are different modes or types of modality - notably, natural, temporal, extensional as well as logical modality. Many logicians/philosophers focus solely on logical modality (de dicta), whereas in fact, in everyday discourse among laymen and scientists, the other modes (de re) are equally important. Yet , these different modes of modality behave differently to some extent, and have therefore to be studied separately. Each gives rise to a distinct meaning of probability.

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